Good morning.
2024 is here. Do you have a renewed sense of purpose? A burning desire to adopt a new personality or hobby? I certainly am trying my best to not let the distinct dreariness of January (incidentally also my birthday month) make me hibernate, so I will be subscribing to all the “New Year, New Me” antics in an attempt to distract myself.
To kickstart the year for you, I’ve spoken with five Guardian writers to get their thoughts, predictions and general musings on what the next 12 months could look like in politics, entertainment, tech and the climate crisis. I promise, it won’t be all bad.
That’s right after the headlines.
In depth: our experts on the year ahead
‘No tax, no spend’ | the economy with senior economics commentator Aditya Chakrabortty
Economically speaking, “it’s going to be even worse than last year”, Aditya says, which is a comforting start to the conversation. He’s not just putting his finger to the wind either: the forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility said growth would be about 0.7%. “To give context to how bad that is, when I started working as an economic journalist at the tail end of the 90s, Gordon Brown, who was chancellor, was talking about Britain hitting economic growth of about 3% a year,” Aditya says. All of this means that we could well be heading into a recession next year.
The big economic word this year will be “growth”, Aditya says, for both Labour and Conservatives. Their strategies to achieve it look pretty similar, too: “The main lines will be, not spending more and certainly not taxing more because everyone is too scared to mention tax ahead of an election, but instead focusing on the private sector. Both parties want investors to weigh in and start pumping money into crucial infrastructure projects.”
In terms of what to expect in an election year, Aditya says: “When an economy is growing at something just above 0% it leads to zero sum politics.” So expect a divisive, fractious political landscape. Rumour has it there could be a spring election, so the year could start with a bang.
This all sounds pretty gloomy. So for some hopeful further reading, Aditya recommends When Nothing Works: From Cost of Living to Foundational Liveability, a constructive book that tries to give solutions to some of the biggest problems we are facing.
‘Highly anticipated’ film and TV | culture with arts editor Alex Needham
Expect 2024 to be full of highly anticipated films and TV. At the very start of the year Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers is going to hit the big screen – the film has already won seven awards at the British Independent Film Awards, with Paul Mescal taking best supporting performance. “It’s kind of a ghost story, but it’s also a really moving meditation on grief and loss and what it means to be a middle aged, gay person, so it really spoke to me,” says Alex. There is also a lot of buzz around Jonathan Glazer’s new film The Zone of Interest: “it’s meant to be really ambitious stylistically and very challenging in terms of the moral quandary it throws up,” Alex says. And for those who loved Parasite, Bong Joon-ho is back with a mega budget sci-fi film called Mickey 17, which stars Robert Pattinson.
In terms of TV, the makers of Game of Thrones are releasing a new Netflix sci-fi series called 3 Body Problem. (Think big budget fantasia with lots of high concept CGI). “There’s been a lot of talk about how we have passed peak TV. I imagine that this might be a bit of a bellwether as to whether Netflix still has these big TV moments, because presumably, if it doesn’t do that well, it’s going to be quite an expensive mistake,” Alex says.
If you want to get out of the house though, there is plenty going on in the real world. “I’m looking forward to Matt Smith in An Enemy of the People by Thomas Ostermeier. He’s a very radical German director who has been on before although not with a star attached,” Alex notes. There is also the Mike Kelley exhibition at the Tate Modern, in London, and, of course, Glastonbury (though Alex says he’s not going this year).
In terms of aesthetics and more ephemeral phenomena that might make a comeback, Alex floats the idea that we have reached peak Y2K saturation and the 80s could be on their way back in: “It’s all cyclical, so that’s my prediction. Maybe it’ll be all nouvelle cuisine off of square plates.” Sounds fun.
‘Record-breaking temperatures’ | the climate crisis with environment editor Fiona Harvey
“With temperatures breaking global records in 2023 – the hottest year yet recorded – it is highly likely that 2024 will be even hotter. That means there is a good chance that average global temperatures for the year will break through the crucial threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, taking the climate into uncharted territory.
“The 1.5C limit, the lower of the two set in the 2015 Paris agreement, is vital because scientists have shown that beyond that threshold we are likely to reach tipping points in the climate that could have disastrous impacts. Some of these, such as melting ice at the poles, are likely to become irreversible.
“One year breaching the 1.5C limit is not enough to invalidate the Paris accord, nor is it likely to set off a cascade of tipping points immediately. But it shows how close the world is coming to irretrievable climate breakdown, with potentially catastrophic impacts.
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“Nations have agreed to avoid allowing temperatures to permanently surpass the 1.5C limit. But where is the action to back that up? Policy responses are still too weak, and greenhouse gas emissions rose to their highest ever annual amount in 2023.
“There are promising signs, in the rapid build-out of renewable energy in countries such as China and India, in the take-up of electric vehicles, and in the resolution at Cop28 to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels – flawed and late, but still strategically important. If fossil fuel demand can be made to fall in 2024 – as some are predicting – that could at last mark the turning point the world desperately needs.”
‘Sustainability and quiet luxury’ | lifestyle with acting fashion and lifestyle editor Ellie Violet Bramley
Polarisation is one of the defining qualities of our era, and fashion is not immune, says Ellie. “Some of the big issues at the heart of the industry speak to just how divided our times are – and we would be fools to expect a sudden smoothing out in 2024. Take, on the one hand, sustainability – it seems sensible to predict the continuing rise of Vinted, increasing consumer savviness around greenwashing and we will start to see the decline of self-regulation in favour of actual legislation, to bring brands into line on emissions targets. On the other, it is hard to see a world in which the march of hyper-fast-fashion brand Shein and the more-recent triumph of Temu won’t continue at speed.”
What of the industry itself? “A conversation around the maleness and whiteness of creative directors has dominated the latter half of 2023, and we can expect it to rumble on into next year. Next up and ripe for scrutiny will be announcements as to who will take the helm at Moschino, and at Givenchy.”
A big event on newsstands will be Edward Enninful’s final issue of Vogue in March, Ellie says, and the first by his successor, Chioma Nnadi. “Although Chioma has said her focus will be on ‘digital storytelling’, that first hard copy of the magazine will still be pored over for clues as to where she intends to take the heritage magazine next.”
As for where things are headed aesthetically, Ellie says, “quiet luxury, for all its lack of volume, will continue to make the Gwyneth Paltrow Utah courtroom look – all cream polo necks and neatly cut blazers – a dominant force. But, if coffee shades have been frothiest in 2023, understated black will make a resurgence in 2024. Already big on catwalks and red carpets, I predict quiet luxury will add a long black to the menu alongside all the cappuccino-shades that have proven chic in 2023.”
Platform shifting | tech with UK technology reporter Hibaq Farah
The antics of Elon Musk took up a lot of our attention this year. Has the landscape changed? “This year, we saw the glorious rise and subsequent fall of Threads – it was meant to be a huge rival to X but frankly, it felt as though a half-baked idea was launched too early,” Hibaq says. “Beyond this, I think it showed that social media users are very specific about the types of communities they build across various platforms.”
Has TikTok retained its dominant position? “Not every app can be everything for everyone all at once. So, next year, we will see more users and content creators embracing their different personalities and presences across different platforms. Locket for close friends, TikTok for fans, and Instagram for your family, friends and the old classmates you feel too mean to remove,” says Hibaq. Meanwhile, “users, content creators and influencers will start leaning into what their audience wants or their community engages with on each app instead of trying to maintain one approach across platforms.”
Are attention times changing? “In 2024, we will start to see a shift from shorter videos across platforms to more vlogs and podcasts. For example, TikTok has just rolled out a 30-minute feature. At this point, we are already watching movies on TikTok, so I can see how long-form audio formats would work really well there.”
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