In the next two weeks, brands have two inescapable forces to compete with for eyeballs online.
In the lead up to election day on Nov. 5, presidential nominees Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are expected to flood social media and Google with campaign ads in last ditch efforts to reach undecided voters, particularly chronically online Millennials and Gen-Zers — the very cohort that digital brands count on for sales.
At the same time, the end of October is already an expensive period for brands to advertise online, with more labels ramping up their digital ad spend to prepare for Black Friday. Already this month, the cost per click for a Google ad is up as much as 12 percent year over year, while the cost per thousand impressions on Facebook and Instagram is up as much as 8 percent, according to marketing agency Belardi Wong. Some industry experts expect an even steeper price surge in the coming weeks as supercharged politicians fight for eyeballs in a tight election race. Ad tracking firm AdImpact estimates that political media spend this election cycle will reach around $10 billion, up 13 percent from 2020.
“If I could spend [millions] on my brand in the next three weeks, the [political] campaigns are gonna spend four times that much,” said Greg Portell, senior partner at global consulting firm Kearney.
While presidential elections typically raise advertising prices across media, this one can be particularly consequential for brands. It’s the first election since Apple’s sweeping privacy changes in 2021, which drove up the cost of digital ads and curbed access to data that helps brands find their target audiences. There’s also increased competition for consumer attention — not just from fellow digitally-native brands, but also ultra-fast-fashion giants like Shein and Temu. While retail sales remain better than expected, it’s anticipated that consumers will be more cautious in the weeks leading up to and after the election. To top it all off, there’s fewer days between Black Friday and Christmas this year, prompting brands to start putting out holiday ads earlier than usual, bumping directly into the election cycle.
“The first week of October, the earliest brands start putting their gift guides for the holiday season, which is not where we were five years ago,” said Ariel Stoddard, chief revenue officer at intimates brand MeUndies.
This period is crucial for brands looking to meet sales targets before the year is over. But even with the tidal wave of political ads, there are still ways for brands to stand out. To break through the cluttered advertising landscape, companies are leaning into channels outside of Meta and Google, such as text message marketing and shopping newsletters.
“There’s no reason for a brand advertiser to get caught in the melee of the political cycle,” Portell added.
When Diversification Pays Off
Brands are diverting advertising dollars to channels where they can speak directly to their customers, such as email and text messages.
In choosing where to spend, brands should look to the alternative channels that have already proven to be effective in reaching their target audience — not use the busiest time of the year to test out something new.
“With the costs going up, there doesn’t need to be a work around; you know that this is an effective channel for you,” said Calla Murphy, senior vice president of digital strategy and integrated marketing at Belardi Wong.
It helps that given the declining effectiveness of social media ads, most brands have already been figuring out what those channels are. For example, private equity and brand management firm Bedrock, which owns watch brand Shinola and the western wear label Filson, has been building both brands’ text message subscriber list for a year to curb its reliance on paid social media ads. In early October, Filson sent texts giving select customers early access to a sale on a few of its bestselling items, including its $1,000 utility Packer jacket, generating its highest sales day from a text message campaign in the company’s history, said Kevin Wertz, Bedrock’s chief marketing officer. Shinola will also use texting in the coming month to promote add-on services like same-day delivery and gift wrapping.
“Our subscriber list for email and SMS for both brands is going to be a major driver of revenue for us this holiday season,” Wertz said.
Marissa Lepor, director at investment bank The Sage Group, also encourages brands to try to get more out of their existing channels. If a brand has a mobile app, for instance, it can use push notifications to distribute holiday advertising content and directly reach customers when competition is so high in traditional marketing channels, she said.
“There’s a significant amount of sales that can just be generated through the app and typically those are also their most engaged customers,” Lepor said.
Brands should also consider the advertising opportunities that are nearly guaranteed to be free of politics, even if they reach fewer people. In May, bootmaker Tecovas began targeting shopping newsletters — a channel that has gained popularity in recent years, with a typically smaller but highly engaged and trusting audience looking to make the right purchases. In August, sales for Tecovas’ $295 zip-up men’s boot, The Dean, rose 45 percent year over year after it was featured in menswear newsletter Cool Material. The brand expects its inclusion in holiday-themed newsletters to increase traffic on its site in the coming months, said Krista Dalton, Tecovas’ chief marketing officer and senior vice president of digital and e-commerce.
The instability of this period underscores how important it is for brands to develop a marketing strategy that works year-round, and prevents them from being so reliant on one particular period in time. For the brands that do feel a squeeze over the next few weeks, there’s good news: After the election, consumers will likely welcome a distraction from politics — and ads about handbags and shoes could fill that void.
“Either way the election goes, some people may be very pleased and some people may be very disappointed,” said Murphy. “There’s an escapism with online shopping and retail therapy that is very real.”
